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20-08-2026 - While the Taliban group administration celebrated 15 August 2021, as the fifth anniversary of the victory of their so-called Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan against 48 NATO member states, the Embassy and Mission of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (IRoA) in Rome declared this day a “Day of National Mourning” – marking the fall of the Republic and the captivity of Afghanistan – under the occupying and tyrannical Taliban group.
At the same time, the proud national and historical tricolor flag of Afghanistan was flown at half-mast for three consecutive days on the roof top of this embassy and mission.

As the Taliban group administration has completed its fifth year back in power, several states have inevitably begun some form of engagement or relations with the group, often adopting a reductionist and accommodative approach due to their geostrategic, geopolitical, and geoeconomic interests in Afghanistan.
Apart from the Russian Federation, other states, including the Republic of Italy, have not diplomatically recognized the Taliban administration.
The fundamental questions that arise after five years of illegitimate rule by the Taliban group are:
As protests and resistance against this group have grown in every corner of Afghanistan, how will the pages of history record August 15, 2021, and, five years later, what will history say about the reasons for the collapse of the Republic?
What consequences has the dramatic collapse of the Republic had for the people of Afghanistan inside and outside the country?
What lessons have the Afghan community and the international community learned in the past five years?
How could the occupying and monopolistic rule of the Taliban group, and the presence and support of their state and non-state terrorist sponsors in Afghanistan, come to an end?

In the past five years research and analyses conducted by prominent academics, universities, think tanks, governmental, nongovernmental, and international organizations, clearly indicates a deep political, economic, social, and humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan.
Although the unrealistic narratives of the Taliban group’s administration, like those of most former rulers of coup regimes in Afghanistan over the past five decades, are based on their own propaganda machine, contemporary historiography – very different from past historiography, which was based on stories, narratives, anecdotes, or flattery for the ruling elite – will certainly regard the illegitimate and oppressive return of the Taliban group to power on August 15, 2021, as a turning point and the darkest day in the contemporary history of Afghanistan.
The day when a future of hope turned into a future of despair, neglect, internal displacement, migration, imprisonment, persecution and the gradual death of the Afghan nation.

After the Taliban were ousted from power in 2001, and despite enormous sacrifices made in both blood and treasure—3,621 brave NATO soldiers, including 53 Italian soldiers, along with 76,000 Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) personnel, lost their precious lives in the fight against the Taliban and their terrorist affiliates in Afghanistan – the group easily returned to power 21 years later.
The sacrifices of these brave men and women in uniform, together with the innocent Afghan and non-Afghan civilians killed during this period, will be immortalized in the contemporary history of Afghanistan.
However, August 15, 2021, will be remembered not only as the beginning of a dark future for the people of Afghanistan, but also as the beginning of a collective defeat for Afghanistan’s allies, who will most likely face terrorist attacks and consequences emanating from Afghanistan that may be worse than those of September 11, 2001.

Although the reasons for the collapse of the Afghan Republic are complex and should not be regarded as a simple military defeat, it was the result of long-term political, systemic, and strategic vulnerabilities.
The anticipated withdrawal of US and NATO forces under the Doha Agreement between the US and the Taliban in February 2020, and President Biden’s subsequent confirmation of a full US military withdrawal in 2021, on the one hand focused and intensified Taliban attacks on the ANDSF, and on the other hand cut off vital air, intelligence, logistical, and aircraft maintenance support for the ANDSF.
The ANDSF, which was heavily dependent on US contractors and infrastructure, was therefore structurally weakened and eventually collapsed.

In addition to the deep institutional corruption within the Republic, which eroded public trust and the centralized administrative system in Kabul – particularly the concentration of key authority in the hands of a small, exclusive group known as the “Afghan Kitchen Cabinet” – this became an impeding constraint on the development of deep roots and meaningful inclusion of diverse communities across Afghanistan.
At the same time, internal divisions among the political elite in Kabul prevented the development of a unified strategy to counter the Taliban group and their affiliate's terrorist attacks.
The failure to transfer power and the preplanned abandonment of Kabul by former President Ghani on August 15 created a political power vacuum, hastening the surrender of the capital and the immediate collapse of the Republic’s institutions, including the ANDSF.

Moreover, the lack of continuity in US foreign policy and the flawed state-building strategy during the twenty-one years of the Republic severely hampered international forces’ ability to build state capacity in some Afghan provinces.
The US, which consistently failed to properly manage resources and aid to support balanced development and growth across Afghanistan, also failed to adequately understand the local dynamics of various provinces.

The dire consequences for the population remaining inside Afghanistan under the Taliban’s rogue rule have been enormous.
The Taliban group’s return to power has brought severe economic hardship to the country. The cutoff of foreign aid, which previously provided almost 80 percent of the Republic’s budget—along with the freezing of the central bank’s assets – has caused a massive economic contraction.
Per capita income has fallen sharply, and Afghanistan has been cut off from the international banking system. The elimination of women’s jobs with the combination of food insecurity, poverty and unemployment is exacerbating the country’s economic stagnation. In fact, the UN has identified Afghanistan as one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
Also, Severe malnutrition and a deteriorating public health system have left more than half of the population facing a humanitarian, health and food crisis.
The Taliban group's administration has systematically denied the unalienable rights of girls and women to pursue secondary and higher education and seek employment, often described as “gender apartheid," causing the most damage to public life in Afghanistan.
At the same time, the rapid suppression of civil society, independent media, freedom of speech and expression, and access to information, along with internet and cyber blockades and the severe repression of political opponents, especially women and minority groups, have eroded the gains of two decades of the Republic and the international community in Afghanistan.

The consequences of the Taliban group’s occupation of Afghanistan have also been very difficult for the Afghan diaspora.
The situation is dire for the refugees who fled through the mass evacuation during the first weeks of chaotic flights from Kabul and the months that followed, joining millions of refugees in neighboring Pakistan and Iran or in North America and Europe.
While this wave of flight and migration abroad has led to a brain drain inside Afghanistan, outside the country Afghan refugees are grappling with deep psychological distress, survivor’s guilt, and the trauma of sudden displacement.
They experience a profound sense of alienation as they watch the civil atmosphere of their homeland and the suffering of their families from afar, with little hope of a safe return to Afghanistan.

While some Afghan refugees have been granted asylum by Western countries, many remain stuck in diplomatic limbo or transit camps with uncertain legal status.
Host countries, especially neighboring countries, have forcibly expelled large numbers of Afghan refugees in violation of international laws and conventions due to changing geopolitical alignments.
Some EU member states, by handing over the diplomatic and consular missions of IRoA Afghanistan to representatives of the Taliban and, more recently, by initiating technical talks with the Taliban, have periodically threatened widespread forced deportations.
Handing what remains of the IRoA’s missions to the Taliban (diplomatic geography) in exchange for technical agreement and arrangement with the Taliban for the deportation of Afghans back to the persecuting administration not only runs contrary to international and immigration law, but it will also have dire security consequences for the EU and beyond.

The lessons learned by the people of Afghanistan and the international community over the past five years are as follows:
1. The identity of the Taliban as a Jihadist group, while very difficult to reconcile with modern governance and the complex Afghan nation-state, helps clarify why the group maintains its core and uncompromising ideological values.
The Taliban believe that their authority comes directly from God (governed solely by a wrong and uncompromising medieval interpretation of Sharia law) and not from the general will of the Afghan people, a national constitution, and/or international recognition.
Therefore, the goal of the Taliban group administration is to preserve this wrong form of Sharia law and then expand the Islamic Emirate beyond the borders of Afghanistan.
In their view, as their divine Sharia is non-negotiable, they continue to tactically postpone negotiations with the UN and the international community on important issues such as the formation of an inclusive government, observance of human rights, and a sincere fight against terrorism in Afghanistan.

2. The Afghan and international communities have realized in the past year that there is neither moderation nor pragmatism among the Taliban groups, but rather a few opportunistic Taliban who can accept some of the small demands of the Afghan and international community in a partial and short-term manner. Once they attain diplomatic recognition, they will resort to their brutality and Jihdist discourse.

3. Separatism, ethnic division, and ethnic hegemony espoused by a small number of Afghans, but with a wide presence on social media networks, disrupted the unity of the Afghan community abroad in the initial years of the Taliban administration.
Recently, there has been a fundamental shift in belief across all spectrums of Afghan politics that unity, tolerance, dialogue, and belief in the citizenry rights, separation of powers, and reasonable administrative decentralization—strengthening of local administrations based on the new written constitution in Afghanistan—are the only way out of the current crisis in the country.
Additionally, most Afghans have finally come to an understanding that the Taliban group administration does not represent any ethnic group in Afghanistan and is inept at running governmental institutions.

4. Although this embassy and mission continues not to support any form of political violence inside Afghanistan, social protests and resistance are considered the legitimate rights of the people.
However, the lack of a strategy in the event of the collapse of the Taliban group administration and the emergence of a power vacuum will confront Afghanistan with major challenges, especially the possibility of civil war.
Therefore, relying on certain states that have been responsible for the factional wars of the 80s, the failure of the Republic and the international community in Afghanistan and the return of the Taliban group to power is considered futile and politically naive.
To overcome this crisis and present a suitable political option, it is imperative for Afghanistan's prominent political and civic leaders, the intelligentsia and diaspora of Afghanistan to start a national dialogue with ethnic leaders, clergy, and influential figures within the country, and if necessary, to also promote the use of various established national-traditional structures to build consensus in preparing an Afghan-owned and driven political roadmap and present it to the international community.
This roadmap could become handy in the event of the weakening and/or collapse of the Taliban administration in Afghanistan.

5. The experience of the past five decades shows that Afghanistan, due to its geostrategic location, has a vital need to promote and ultimately consolidate the principle of permanent and active neutrality in its foreign policy.
Therefore, a paradigm shift in the national narrative from "security" to "economic and transit" and "permanent neutrality" can end the distrust with neighboring and regional countries and lead to economic cooperation and integration of Afghanistan with the region and beyond.

6. Maintaining smart and targeted diplomatic pressure on the Taliban group administration and delivering conditional aid to ensure that humanitarian aid reaches Afghan civilians without legitimizing the repressive rule of the Taliban is essential.
This, along with ending covert cash assistance from certain states to the Taliban administration, will ultimately weaken and inevitably bring them to the negotiation table.
Until the Taliban group administration is pressured appropriately, their leaders will never support an inclusive alternative political framework in Afghanistan.
At the same time, the international community should support the empowerment of underground educational networks, human rights defenders, and the presence of representatives of Afghan civil society, especially women and minorities, in important gatherings and decisive talks on Afghanistan.

Though currently the focus of the international community is on the conflicts in Iran, Gaza, and Lebanon, ignoring the current realities on the ground in Afghanistan, especially the regrouping of more than 26 terrorist groups hosted and supported by the Taliban group and their sponsors, will have dire security consequences for the region and for the world.

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