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03-10-2026 - On October 1, 2026, Pakistan carried out its third wave of airstrikes since mid-September on the districts of Shultan in Kunar and Garmser in Helmand.
This marked another sharp escalation in the deteriorating security relationship between the Taliban administration and Pakistan.
The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) confirmed that in these latest airstrikes at least 10 civilians, most of them children, were killed and nine others injured.
Taliban authorities reported nine civilians killed and 11 wounded, while Pakistan said its forces had targeted militant hideouts and claimed that 22 militants had been killed.

The competing accounts of the military targets and casualties have not been independently reconciled.
These latest strikes occurred amid an intensified round of regional and shuttle diplomacy in mid-September, led by İbrahim Kalın, chief of Türkiye's National Intelligence Organization (MIT), and Hamad bin Khamis Al-Kubaisi, Qatar's deputy national security adviser, who traveled separately to Kabul for high-level security discussions with Taliban officials.

In Kabul, Kalın met several senior Taliban figures, including Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs; Sirajuddin Haqqani, acting Minister of Interior; Mawlawi Mohammad Yaqoob Mujahid, acting Minister of Defense; and Abdul Haq Wasiq, head of the General Directorate of Intelligence. Kalın also travelled to Kandahar, though he couldn’t meet the elusive Supreme Leader of the Taliban, Hibatullah Akhundzada, but he did meet Mohammad Shirin Akhund, the Taliban appointed governor of Kandahar.
Al-Kubaisi also held talks with his counterpart as well as with other senior members of the Taliban group administration in Kabul, including Sirajuddin Haqqani.

The Taliban and regional reporting indicated that these discussions addressed regional security, relations between Kabul and Islamabad, terrorism, narcotics and regional developments.
Taliban Interior Ministry spokesman Abdul Mateen Qani subsequently said that tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan and developments in Iran were among the issues discussed.
Following his meetings in Afghanistan, Kalın travelled to Islamabad, where he met Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Director-General of Inter-Services Intelligence Lieutenant General Asim Malik.
Turkish reporting described the discussions as covering bilateral relations, regional security and broader regional developments. Other reporting linked the visit to efforts to address and ease tensions between Kabul and Islamabad.

These efforts, involving shuttle and regional diplomacy by Ankara and Doha, however, failed to prevent a cycle of violence on September 18, when a suicide bombing followed by an armed assault occurred at a police compound in Kohat, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Responsibility was claimed by an armed group affiliated with Hafiz Gul Bahadur. Pakistan accused Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other armed groups of operating from Afghan territory and carrying out such attacks inside Pakistan.
The Taliban authorities rejected these allegations and maintained that insecurity inside Pakistan is an internal matter for Pakistan.

In retaliation for the September 18 attacks in Kohat, Pakistan carried out a series of airstrikes on September 21 and 24 in Afghanistan.
UNAMA confirmed that an airstrike in Kunar on September 21 killed at least three civilians and injured four others.
According to Pakistani authorities, the September 24 airstrikes in areas including Kandahar and Khost provinces were directed against militant targets.
These security disputes cannot, however, be separated from the longer history of Afghanistan-Pakistan relations. For decades, Pakistan's policy toward Afghanistan has been influenced by its policy known as “Strategic Depth,” driven by concerns related to India’s influence on Afghanistan.
Analysts and official investigations have also documented forms of Pakistani support and Safe haven for the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani Network during the Taliban insurgency against the former Afghan Republic, the Afghan population, and NATO troops stationed in Afghanistan.

On August 15, 2021, with the illegal return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan, the strategic environment fundamentally changed.
Pakistan, which had maintained extensive relations with the Taliban, particularly the Haqqani Network, gradually began to face challenges posed by the Kandahari-run Taliban administration, such as refusing to take further directives from Pakistan, sidelining the pro-Pakistani Haqqani Network, and supporting the TTP.
As Islamabad has argued that Taliban authorities have failed to prevent the TTP from using Afghan territory, Kabul has repeatedly denied providing such support.
The resulting dilemma illustrates a broader regional problem: relationships with terrorist networks cultivated or tolerated for short-term strategic purposes (often framed as “good terrorists” versus “bad terrorists”) can produce transnational networks whose objectives eventually diverge from those of the state and non-state actors that once viewed them as strategic partners.
The consequences can extend beyond the immediate state security crisis, creating broader challenges for the region and beyond.

The current security crisis must also be viewed in the light of the security environment inside Afghanistan.
United Nations reporting has repeatedly expressed concern about the continued presence and activities of more than 20 terrorist networks in the country, including the TTP, Al-Qaida, ISIL-K, and other terrorist groups.
At the same time, the security dilemma is not confined to the north side of the Afghanistan–Pakistan Durand Line (Afghanistan does not recognize this demarcation as a de jure border).
UN and other international reportin continue to document the presence of Pakistan-based terrorist organizations, including Lashkar-e-Tayyiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, as well as other militant organizations.
Some groups have even maintained personnel, networks, or support structures on both sides of the Durand Line.
The continued presence of these terrorist organizations demonstrates that terrorism in the region is a transnational problem that cannot be addressed through unilateral military action alone.
The Taliban and Pakistani authorities, therefore, have a responsibility to ensure that their territories are not used against each other or threaten other states.

Although Pakistan's legitimate security concerns cannot simply be dismissed, particularly given the continuing attacks attributed to armed groups based in or operating from Afghanistan, those concerns do not, by themselves, establish a legal justification for attacks that kill civilians or damage civilian property.
International humanitarian law requires parties to an armed conflict to distinguish between civilian and military objectives and to take feasible precautions to minimize civilian harm.
The same principle applies to the Taliban authorities to prevent Afghan territory from being used for attacks against neighboring states.
The consequences of the present cycle of terrorist attacks followed by military airstrikes and skirmishes across the Durand Line is also significant.

UNAMA reported on October 1 that it had documented more than 1,100 civilian deaths and injuries in Afghanistan from cross-border armed violence during 2026 and called for de-escalation, dialogue, respect for international law and measures to prevent further civilian harm.
Additionally, it has compounded Afghanistan's humanitarian and economic difficulties due to crossing point closures on the Durand Line.

The latest visits by Türkiye and Qatar demonstrate that shuttle and regional diplomacy can create channels of communication even when direct relations between the parties are severely strained.
But shuttle and regional diplomacy alone is unlikely to provide a durable answer to a conflict rooted in competing security perceptions, unresolved historical and political questions compounded with mutual mistrust.
For Afghanistan, what is required is a political settlement through an Afghan-owned and Afghan-led political process in establishing of an inclusive, elected and representative government, which would be capable of addressing the country's political, security, economic and humanitarian challenges as well as provide protection for human rights and a guarantee to combat transnational terrorism in all its forms and manifestations.
For Pakistan, it requires credible mechanisms through which concerns about the Durand Line militancy can be raised based on credible and verifiable proof rather than competing accusations, military retaliation and recurring crossing point closures.

Moreover, maintaining national interests through igniting a civil war inside Afghanistan via supporting opposition groups or various networks within the Taliban must end.


As Türkiye and Qatar continue to facilitate communication between Kabul and Islamabad, their efforts should be complemented by the engagement of the United Nations, the European Union, the United States, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and other relevant stakeholders.

A sustainable mechanism that should address both Pakistan's legitimate security concerns and Afghanistan's security, civilian-protection, and the people of Afghanistan’s call for the formation of an inclusive, elected and representative government where the Taliban could be a part of this political settlement requires the commitment and support of all the stakeholders.
Repeated regional security arrangements, therefore, will not resolve the current security crisis whose underlying cause is fundamentally political and can only be addressed through a political settlement in Afghanistan. 

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